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Using quantitative and other techniques developed professionally, Reid Holloway published studies in 1996, 2000 and 2004 forecasting the outcome of the Electoral College. His 2004 model accurately forecasted not only the Electoral College outcome but also the popular vote totals for each of the candidates in all 50 states and D.C. within one half of one percentage point of the actual shares. He called 47 states and the District correctly. During the two-week period leading up to the 2004 election he was a nightly guest on the ABC Radio Network discussing his findings with John Batchelor.
 
Click here to read our study about the 2008 election, and why all indications at the time it was issued in early July 2008 pointed toward the resounding victory of Senator Barack Obama over Senator John McCain.
 
 
Here's how actual popular vote results on November 4, 2008, compared with the model's forecast in early July:
 

A Comparison of the forecasted votes issued in early July 2008 with the actual presidential-election tally of November 4, 2008

 

In sum, the Holloway forecast was remarkably close some four months ahead of the actual election.  He called the turnout within fewer than 4 million votes (out of more than 121 million cast).  His forecast for Obama's vote count was off by about a million votes.  Looked at on the basis of percentage measures, the Holloway call was, in both candidates' cases, wide of the mark by a scant 0.72 percentage points

Forecast

 

 Popular Vote

 

(issued July 9, 2008)

Actual

 

 Popular Vote

 

 

(November 4, 2008)

Nominal Variance

 

 

 

 

(forecast - actual) 

Obama 
65,736,338
 
66,882,230

 

-1,145,892

McCain 
55,710,526
 
58,343,671
 
-2,633,145
Total 
121,446,864
 
125,225,901

 

 

-3,779,037

 
 
Click here to listen to a live interview with KION-AM's Wake Up, Monterey host Mark Carbonaro conducted July 9, 2008, about Reid's then just-issued 2008 Electoral College study.
 
Click here to listen to Reid Holloway and Martha Montelongo teaming up on August 18, 2008, with Mark Carbonaro on Wake Up, Monterey to share their observations about Senators Obama and McCain in their first ever live television matchup before Pastor Rick Warren's congregation at the Saddleback Church Faith Forum.
 
Martha Montelongo Myers was the political commentator and host for Straight Talk with Martha, on News Talk 1460 KION-AM radio for two years from January of 02 to November of 2004.  Her most impressive media credentials include publication in The Washington Post, CalNews.com, La Opinion, Santa Cruz Sentinel, Orange County Register, CaliforniaRepublic.org, and the

Monterey Herald Tribune.

 

More on Martha, a regular on KION-AM's and Mark Carbonaro's Wake Up, Monterey  "Free-for-All Fridays," can be found at her web site: http://marthamontelongo.com/index.html.

  

Update of August 28, 2008—No Longer an Obama Rout, It's a Real Horse Race Shaping Up

 

Since initially issuing our study in early July 2008, significant shifts in voter sentiment occurred in the race between Barack Obama and John McCain at the period in time coinciding with the two major parties' conventions.  We had originally gauged the gap separating the candidates at 10 million popular votes and 100 electoral votes—what looked at the time to be an upcoming rout for Senator Obama.

 

As is always the case in politics, things can change in a short period of time.  At the close of August 2008 our model narrowed the gap between the two men at between one and two million votes, or slightly more than one percentage point in the popular tally estimate separating the contestants.  The Electoral College gap has closed as well, and may be as thin as six electoral votes.

 

Here are the events we saw at convention time as having had a contributory bearing on these changes since our first cut at the 2008 study:

 

  • Obama’s trip to Europe and the Middle East
  • Radical shakeups in the McCain campaign organization (including new advertising)
  • The faith forum at the Saddleback Church in Orange County, California
  • The McCain “multiple residence” imbroglio
  • DNC/Biden selection/Obama acceptance speech coverage

 

Significantly, what is usually a convention bounce amounted to more of a convention crater for Obama, although a positive effect is anticipated as the convention winds up its proceedings.

 

Here’s what our popular vote estimates looked like as of this writing, August 28, 2008:

 

McCain            Obama             Margin

59,769,296      61,272,363      1,503,067

49.38%            50.62%            1.24%

 

 

Mark Carbonaro graciously invited Reid for a return visit to his Wake Up, Monterey program on 1460 KION-AM on August 28, 2008.  Originally scheduled for a half-hour segment, Mark extended Reid’s stay for a total of 90 minutes, which is why the MP3 rendition of this interview had to be divided into two segments on this site.

 

During this wide-ranging discussion Reid was joined by Roger P. Pasquier, a noted business figure, public activist and broadcasting icon in the Monterey County, California, area.   Since 1982 Roger Pasquier has been President of CRP Associates, Inc. a broadcast consulting company. His involvement in broadcasting spans 35 years working with both Radio and TV companies to grow revenues and expand profit margins. Mr. Pasquier’s areas of expertise include ownership, general and sales management, planning, engineering and programming, construction, valuation and acquisition. He is considered an expert in both federal and state courts and by FCC authorities. Mr. Pasquier is well known for his work in turnaround, problem and start-up broadcast properties. He has either consulted, conducted due diligence, negotiated or directed the purchase and re-financing in over 150 broadcast property transactions. CRP Associates, Inc. has been a member of the NAB for 25 years.  More on Roger's business activities available by visiting http://www.broadcastconsultants.com.

 

Click here for the first segment, and click here for the second segment.

 

Reid returned again to Wake Up, Monterey on September 8, 2008, to speak with Mark about the significant shift in the polls in Senator McCain's favor since the selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as the Senator's vice-presidential running mate.  Because this interview coincided with the announcement of the federal government's bailout plan for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Reid and Mark discussed that issue as well.

 

Click here to listen to this interview.

 

On September 12, 2008, the morning after the seventh anniversary of 9.11, Mark invited Reid back to Wake Up, Monterey  to discuss the financial market turmoil, the energy markets, Senators McCain's and Obama's joint visit to Ground Zero, and their subsequent "face-off" at Columbia University, as well as Alaska Governor and Republican vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin's interview the same evening with Charles Gibson of ABC News.

 

Click here to listen to this interview.

 

On September 19, 2008, Mark bestowed the high honor of inviting Reid to join Wake Up, Monterey's "Free-for-All Friday" panel, along with regulars Martha Montelongo and Tony Andrade.  A number of listeners also called in to voice their views and raise questions.  The topic of discussion: the presidential election.  But the focus soon turned to tumult in the financial markets, the failure of large financial institutions such as Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and AIG, and associated government bailouts and intervention.

 

Click here to listen to this most spirited discussion.

 

On September 24, 2008, Mark invited Reid back to Wake Up, Monterey to join with regulars Roger Pasquier and Tony Andrade, along with special guest Andrew M. Langer, President, The Institute for Liberty The discussion centered on the continuing debate (in a congress mostly distracted by the campaign season) over the ongoing crisis in the financial sector regarding the threat to financial institutions posed by exposure to the CDO and SIV mortgage-derivatives market, and whether there should be a $700 billion+ taxpayer-financed bailout along the lines supported by President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson.

 

Click here to listen to the give and take.

 

September 29, 2008, turned out to be an historic day in the world financial markets, as the debate on the Wall Street bailout plan spearheaded by President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson raged on--the Congress having failed to reach agreement over the previous weekend as originally expected.  In this interview with Mark Carbonaro, Reid squared off with Roger Pasquier to discuss the plan's pros and cons.  Later in the day, the plan failed to muster the necessary votes needed for approval in the House.  The Dow closed off more than 777 points, its largest nominal drop ever--but only the 17th largest decline in percentage terms.

 

Click here to listen to this interview, and the back and forth between Roger and Reid.

 

On October 3, 2008, Reid returned to 1460 KION-AM for the weekly "Free-for-All Friday," joined by Tony Andrade, Martha Montelongo, Roger Pasquier, Barbra Alexander and, of course, host Mark Carbonaro.  The topic: the previous evening's vice-presidential debate featuring Senator Joe Biden and Governor Sarah Palin.  While exchanging views on that topic, the Wall Street bailout package, already passed by the Senate, neared what later the same day turned out to be an approval vote in the House of Representatives, as well as President Bush's signature, so the conversation also included events in the financial markets, the economy and the question of whether economic developments were eclipsing the campaigns themselves in their effect on the election.

 

Click here to listen to the colloquy.

 

On October 13, 2008 (the Columbus Day holiday), Mark Carbonaro invited Reid Holloway back to KION-AM 1460's Wake Up, Monterey morning program to discuss the historic activity in the financial markets of the preceding week, including the sharp selloff in the price of crude oil.

 

Click here to listen to this interview.

 

On October 16, 2008, Mark invited Reid back to KION-AM 1460's Wake Up, Monterey to enjoy the signal honor of sharing an interview with libertarian economist and author Richard EbelingThe previous evening, Senators McCain and Obama faced off in their third and final debate hosted by Hofstra University on Long Island.  Most of what Mark, Richard and Reid discussed on the air, however, pertained to the financial-system bailout and related events and consequences.

 

Click here to listen to this interview.

 

On October 22, 2008, Reid returned to Wake Up, Monterey in response to Mark's request to discuss the liquidity crisis and the government's bailout policies.  Thanks to Reid's getting a bit too technical on arcane subjects such as the LIBOR rate and the TED spread, Mark asked Reid to take a deep breath and attempt to explain to listeners how to become educated on basic economics.    Reid named two of his favorite texts and explained a couple of rudimentary financial concepts.  At the close of the interview, Reid agreed to return the following morning to discuss his outlook for runaway inflation.  The same day the stock market experienced a greater than 500-point loss on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the S&P 500 closed at a five-and-a-half-year low.

 

Click here to listen to this interview.

 

On October 23, 2008 Reid did return to the show for the inflation discussion with Mark, joined by ClearChannel sister station KTOM's Jim Pearson and economist David R. Henderson.

 

Click here to listen to this lively discussion.

 

On the morning of November 5, 2008, the dust was still settling from the general election returns of the previous night, the historic election of America's 44th and first black president, along with significant pickups in the already Democrat controlled congress in both houses.  Mark and Jim quizzed Reid regarding the accuracy of his July 7, 2008, Electoral College forecast (a "clickable" PDF version of this study is available for perusal at the top of this page), and all three opined on on matters ranging from "What will Obama do?" to "Who is the Republican Party?"

 

Click here to listen to this interview.

 

On November 29, 2008, Mark Carbonaro filled in for Barbra Alexander on the Moneydots on Main Street Network program (Barbra is a regular on Mark's "Free-For-All Friday" on KION-AM 1460).  Reid joined Mark on this one-hour program, and the discussion topics included President-elect Obama's emerging cabinet appointments; the massive expansions in the federal bailout programs for the financial and other industries; concepts about central banks' influences on economic growth; determining and understanding the valuation of stocks, and the functions of capital markets.

 

Click here for the first segment, and click here for the second segment.

 

On December 5, 2008, Mark asked Reid to share his thoughts on how to understand the current tough times, and the steps individuals can take to improve their standing as workers and consumers.  This segment is being aired on KION-AM 1460, and on all of the other sister ClearChannel stations in the Monterey County region, as a public service announcement.

 

Click here to listen to this interview.

 

On December 11, 2008, Reid was invited back to the Mark and Jim Show on KION-AM 1460 to discuss the ever developing story known as the auto bailout.  President-elect Barack Obama, having just announced his Energy Secretary and "climate change" policy designates, inspired Reid to connect emerging trends in environmental and energy policy under the prospective Obama Administration with the future of an auto industry beholden to the federal government, along with its pitfalls and prospects for investors.

 

Click here to listen to this interview.