What Will 2009 Bring?
There's a lot of talk circulating about the economic perils in store for the New Year. The markets melted down in 2008, and the federal government stepped in to bail out both the the financial industry and the auto companies. Jobs are being eliminated at the massive rate of half a million per month in the U.S. Even the economies of China and India, huge beneficiaries of American outsourcing, are seen as softening, if not worse. Is this just another recessionary phase in the normal course of economic cycles over the long term, or something new and different? We invite you to take a look at Reid Holloway's just-published predictions for 2009.
Click here to check out Reid's predictions for 2009.
On January 9, 2009,
Mark Carbonaro invited Reid back to KION 1460-AM for their first interview of the New Year. Joined by economist
Richard Ebeling, Senior Fellow at the American Institute of Economic Research and Professor of Economics at Trinity College of Hartford, Connecticut, the subject of the day was the continuing expansion of the financial and manufacturing industry bailouts, as well as President-elect Obama's proposed "stimulus package" being debated in the congress.
Mark asked Reid to stay with him over the next hour of the program, and the discussion continued to focus on the bailouts, the stimulus package and developments in the economy and the financial markets, including the subject of the political versus altruistic motivations of politicians in shaping their spending plans.
Click here to listen to this additional segment of the January 9, interview.
On January 26, 2009, Reid returned to
The Mark and Jim Show to discuss President Obama's economic stimulus plan, along with a number of other business, financial and economic issues. Questions Reid was handed prior to the interview: Why is the White House now apparently backing off and saying, "even with this massive spending package, it's still going to take a long time for the economy to recover?" Also on the agenda: Should we have an "exit strategy" for the trillions (on top of the "stimulus" trillions) in bailouts? Another hot topic: Geithner for Treasury Secretary: What can we expect? In business and financial news: Wealthiest Mexican bails out
The New York Times, loaning the media giant $250 million
at 14%. Good deal or bad deal, and isn't this the same telecommunications and financial titan who lost a bundle on now bankrupt Circuit City stock purchases not too long ago? Oil is back up--mid-$40s per barrel once again--yet demand is
down. Why?
As you might imagine, we didn't cover everything, but, then again, that leaves some morsels on the table to munch on next time!
On February 5, 2009, Reid Holloway issued a press release unveiling The RLH Volatility Model's outlook for stocks over the next year to year and a half. Click here to read the model's findings. |
On February 12, 2009, Mark and Jim (The Mark and Jim Show) invited Reid back on the air to talk more about the stimulus package, but this time with a "twist." President Obama has called for "responsibility," "bipartisanship" and "accountability." So who's being bipartisan as the spending debate unfolds?
Click here for the lively discussion on this topic.
On March 4, 2009, little more than a month into the Obama Administration's tenure in office, Mark Carbonaro and Jim Pearson (The Mark and Jim Show, KION-AM 1460, Monterey, California) asked Reid to come on to their program to discuss the spectacularly ambitious multi-trillion-dollar spending and tax initiatives already set forth by the new president, dwarfing any conceivable comparison to a precedent in size, scope, speed and controversy. What Mark and Jim wanted to know was, "What policies are good for America's future, and how do we get out of the economic ditch?" Reid's response focused on ways to promote growth, wealth and productivity, and the vast potential of the mutually beneficial economic segments of technology and energy, concluding that the new administration's policies are anything but helpful to incentivizing investment for these critical industries. For these reasons, his assessment of and outlook for the economy and the financial markets were short on optimism.
Click here to listen to this interview.
On March 24, 2009, the man in the hot seat was Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, pitch man for the Obama Administration's plan to help financial institutions in ridding "toxic assets" from their books, a key ingredient in the ever evolving bailout programs--but now a source of major political trouble in the context of major bailout recipient AIG's multimillion-dollar bonuses paid to top executives at taxpayer expense, some if not many of whom architected that firm's disastrous commitments in insuring other institutions' gambles in the mortgage-derivatives markets. Mark Carbonaro and Jim Pearson (The Mark and Jim Show) invited Reid on the air to shed some light on just exactly "What is a 'toxic asset?' " And what is it Secretary Geithner and the congress are contemplating committing the ever bailout-burdened taxpayer and the slumping American economy to in relieving financial institutions with these problem loans and arcane financial derivatives on their books?
Click here to listen to this interview.
May 1, 2009, was a day business and economic analysts and observers could easily describe as a day of contradictions. On the one hand, you had Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke offering the view that "green shoots" were observable in--his contention--the economy contracting at an easing pace. On the other hand, amidst that not so comforting backdrop, automaker Chrysler Corp., its controlling parent and large lender and investor Cerberus Capital Management, other lenders and the federal government were on their way to bankruptcy court. Seeking to sort out the conflicting elements of this confusing picture, Mark Carbonaro and Jim Pearson (The Mark and Jim Show) asked Reid to answer a few questions about risk, bankruptcy, the auto industry, Fiat's entrance into the story and, of course, how much does the ordinary American taxpayer get stuck with this time?
Click here to listen to this interview.
The date: October 26, 2009. The news background: the same as the many weeks leading up to it, the ever wrangling debate throughout the halls of congress and across the nation over the future of America's economy--unemployment stubbornly stuck in a recession mire at 9.8%--and the impact of pending health-care legislation as well as the less talked about cap-and-trade scheme looming over the heads of would be corporate job-creators at such time as recovery may eventually spawn rising demand and the need to hire and expand production capacity (not the way it looks at the moment, sorry to say). Mark Carbonaro (The Mark and Jim Show) invited Reid to return to 1460 KION-AM to discuss the Obama Administration's accomplishments in stemming the recession's tide after trillions in bailouts and "the stimulus package" were once heralded as a "sure thing" to keep that joblessness measure below 8%. Apparently that presidential promise wasn't too prescient, and now one of Obama's top economic advisers, Christina Romer (who heads the president's Council of Economic Advisors), has testified before the congress that not only is the stimulative impact of all that spending largely behind us, but that high unemployment is likely to persist as well for at least several quarters to come. Mark, Reid and Jim Pearson get into the details.
Click here to listen to this interview.
December 23, 2009, a date to look back upon the year now almost concluded, the heading of this page ("What Will 2009 Bring?") and realize we are at that point in time to ask, "What Has 2009 Brought?" Maybe the year hasn't brought the worst of our expectations but there's little doubt that the American public is palpably unconfortable; that President Obama, now showing his highest disapproval ratings in the polls ever--having fallen from popularity more precipitously than any other president, according to some pollsters--and that the magic of Christmas cheer is only going so far this year to take the general edge off. With broadcasting icon Roger Pasquier as his special co-host, Mark Carbonaro invited Reid back to comment upon the economy, recently released GDP statistics and housing-sales measures, but the discussion really turned into what's on the minds of businessmen and bankers in looking ahead--and what that collective mindset means about what to expect from the economy in the near and longer term. Obamacare and Cap and Trade seem to be the chief worries regarding the future employment outlook.
Click here to listen to this interview.
On April 5, 2010, Mark asked Reid to come back to the program to talk about the economy and the markets. Most of the discussion centered on the relative attractiveness of dividend yields in the stock market versus the recently rising 10-year bond rate, and how the outlook for that dynamic is predicated on demand in the credit markets impacted by extremely stimulative national fiscal policy and huge government borrowing, augmented by uncertain circumstances among corporate borrowers contemplating future economic growth and the likelihood of financing capacity expansion.
Click here to listen to this interview.
On April 19, 2010, the news-media budget swelled with stories about the Securities and Exchange Commission's lawsuit against Goldman Sachs alleging fraud in the marketing of mortgage-related securities to clients, and the connection between such sales and Goldman's relationship with John Paulson, the hedge-fund manager who has reaped billions of dollars in profits for his clients and himself by shorting such securities. Mark queried Reid about the SEC's actions, and a lively conversation ensued about financial, legal and political contexts going back to the origins of mortgage-backed trading in the 1980s and statutory changes in the late 1990s with the passage of the Community Reinvestment and Gramm-Leach-Bliley Acts.
Click here to listen to this interview.
On Friday, May 7, 2010, the pundits were abuzz with what reminded Reid of Laugh-In's "The Flying Fickle Finger of Fate Award." That is, the explanation for the previous day's intra-day selloff that at its nadir had the Dow Industrials showing a near 1,000-point loss (and trading well below 10,000) was generally pegged to a (still unidentified) trader who, it was alleged, mistakenly punched in a futures order tied to Procter & Gamble with a few too many zeroes. Mark brought Reid back to 1460 KION-AM to discuss the matter, also following up with some conversation about the economy, unemployment and the morality of debt.
Click here to listen to this interview.
On Monday, June 21, 2010, the new financial week started off with stock-market rallies in Asia and Europe, the driver being word circulating that the Chinese government at long last had decided to let the strengthening Yuan float in world currency markets. Mark asked Reid to come on to the program to discuss the implications of that decision.
Click here to listen to this interview.